USD / CHF forecast before Swiss retail sales, GDP and CPI data

The USD / CHF price is in a narrow range ahead of the upcoming Swiss GDP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Thursday. The pair is trading at 0.9153, where it has been in recent days.

Inflation and GDP data in Switzerland

The Swiss economy is doing quite well as domestic and foreign demand increases and the country intensifies its vaccination process.

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The Swiss statistics agency will release the latest GDP figures on Thursday morning. Economists expect these figures to show the country’s economy grew 2.0% quarter over quarter in the second quarter. This will be a remarkable pace of recovery after the economy contracted 0.1% in the first quarter.

As a result, this recovery is expected to rebound by around 9% year-on-year. It will be the fastest pace of recovery since last year as the country emerged from the initial lockdown.

The USD / CHF pair will also react to the latest Swiss inflation data. Economists expect these numbers to show that the headline CPI fell from -0.1% in July to 0.1% in August. This will translate into annualized growth of around 0.8%, which is slightly below the SNB’s target of 2.0%.

Other key data to watch will be the Swiss retail sales figures for July. Like inflation, the data should show a strong recovery, with residents spending more money.

Regardless of the release of the figures, however, analysts do not expect a policy change from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) anytime soon. In addition, the bank has maintained negative interest rates in recent years. He also argued that the Swiss franc is significantly overvalued.

At the same time, there are risks regarding the increase in the number of Covid cases in the country even as the vaccination process accelerates. USD / CHF will also react to US export and import data and the latest employment figures.

USD / CHF forecast


The four hour chart shows that the USD / CHF price has recently been in a narrow range. It stayed between the narrow channel which has support and resistance levels at 0.9100 and 0.9206 respectively. It also sits along the 25- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral level. Therefore, the pair will likely stay in this range after the latest Swiss economic data.

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