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ERBIL, IRAKI KURDISTAN: Instantly after a failed cross-border hostage rescue try earlier this month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened additional navy actions in opposition to Kurdish fighters overseas and escalated rhetoric in opposition to his secular opponents in his nation.

Erdogan’s newest incursion in opposition to the PKK, an armed group combating for larger political and cultural rights for Kurds in Turkey, shortly unfold to a brand new crackdown on the pro-Kurdish political celebration HDP in addition to a confrontation with Washington for its ado- alliance with a Syrian Kurdish affiliate of the PKK within the struggle in opposition to Daesh.

It began on February 13, when Turkey launched a raid in opposition to the PKK within the Gara area of Iraqi Kurdistan. After clashes, 13 Turkish residents, most of them police and PKK captive troopers since 2015 and 2016, have been discovered useless.

Ankara stated the PKK executed the hostages, however the group stated Turkish airstrikes on the cave complicated throughout the operation prompted their deaths. (AFP)

Ankara stated the PKK executed the hostages, however the group stated Turkish airstrikes on the cave complicated throughout the operation prompted their deaths. Whilst many Turks forged doubt on the federal government’s model of occasions, safety businesses have arrested greater than 700 folks, together with HDP members accused by Erdogan of being “official terrorist accomplices”.

Utilizing the identical political logic, Erdogan additionally accused america of supporting terrorism. “What sort of NATO alliance is that this? … They (the Individuals) all the time act with terrorists, ”he stated on February 22, referring to the American alliance with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group within the marketing campaign in opposition to Daesh within the northeast. from Syria. The principle political entity in northeastern Syria is the Kurdish PYD, which was based because the Syrian department of the PKK.

Many analysts see the mixture of home repression and the explosion in opposition to america as Erdogan’s cynical try to distract from the bloody end result of the hostage rescue operation.

The developments additionally come because the Turkish folks proceed to battle financially, scholar frustrations flip to violence, and the nation’s dealing with of the coronavirus disaster is ranked 74th out of 98 by the Lowy Institute’s COVID Efficiency Index. .

Along with Iraqi Shiite militias, a lot of that are backed by Iran, PKK associates current in Sinjar will nearly actually oppose a Turkish navy operation there. (AFP)

“Erdogan and the Turkish authorities don’t view the hostage rescue operation as a failure,” Emily Hawthorne, Stratfor’s senior analyst for the Center East and North Africa at RANE, advised Arab Information. “The joy of patriotic fervor and the repression of the HDP are a well-recognized tactic employed by Erdogan to achieve the help of his nationalist base for anti-PKK operations.”

She stated the mileage Erdogan may get out of the disaster was not limitless. “If the PKK did kill the hostages, it can assist construct help at house in Turkey for extra anti-PKK operations overseas and will strengthen Ankara’s arguments for extra leeway in its operations. Iraqi girls, ”stated Hawthorne. helps loads with the unfavourable Iraqi public opinion in the direction of the operations. “

Clashes between Turkey and the PKK within the south-eastern a part of Kurdish-majority Turkey declined markedly in 2020, in comparison with the years when the Turkish-PKK battle (which started in 1984) erupted within the aftermath of the collapse of a ceasefire in July 2015. Iraqi Kurdistan.

Just lately, Erdogan threatened new cross-border offensives in opposition to the PKK in Iraq, together with in opposition to its Yazidi associates within the Sinjar area. In January, Turkish officers met with leaders of the Iraqi and Kurdistan Regional Authorities (KRG) and mentioned, amongst different issues, the withdrawal of the PKK from that area.

Nonetheless, along with PKK associates, Iraqi Shiite militias, a lot of them Iranian-backed, are current in Sinjar and can nearly actually oppose a Turkish navy operation there.

Beneath these circumstances, Hawthorne doubts that Erdogan may really invoke the deaths of those Turkish hostages to win the help of the Biden administration for an additional bloody offensive in opposition to the PKK.

“The Turkish authorities has tried and failed for years to attraction to the US authorities relating to its considerations concerning the PKK,” she stated. “The USA is unlikely to grow to be extra versatile in the direction of Turkey due to a very tough and lethal operation in a battle spanning many years.”

Extra usually, the Turkish authorities has issued repeated warnings of operations in opposition to the PKK. But when new incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan, or perhaps a new incursion into Sinjar, happen, Hawthorne predicts that “the additional south the operations, the extra difficult the issue might be with the Iraqi authorities.”

His views are shared by Kurdish analyst Gunes Murat Tezcur, Jalal Talabani chair and professor on the College of Central Florida, who believes the failed Gara operation is unlikely to have any affect on the present coverage of the administration in the direction of Turkey, which is characterised by a divergence of pursuits on a number of ranges. “

These embody US opposition to Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S-400 air protection missiles and Turkey’s opposition to US cooperation with the SDF in Syria. Additional, Tezcur stated it was indeniable that Gara’s raid was a failure because it resulted within the deaths of all of the hostages.

“The distinction to a profitable rescue operation, just like the one performed by Israel at Entebbe Airport in Uganda in 1976, is instructive on this regard,” he advised Arab Information, including that one of many unfavourable end result of the Gara raid is that Erdogan is not going to. be capable to “rating political factors on the nationwide degree”.

Erdogan threatened new cross-border offensives in opposition to the PKK in Iraq, together with in opposition to its Yazidi associates within the Sinjar area. (AFP)

Even so, the opposition can’t maintain President Erdogan liable for the lack of Turkish lives as a result of “prevailing energy asymmetry” in Turkey, ensuing from his authorities’s domination of the media and the state. weakened parliament.

Analysts additionally say Erdogan’s relentless pursuit of the HDP is a part of a technique, underway since 2015, to demonize and criminalize its management by equating it with the banned PKK and denying it autonomy as a celebration. Politics.

“This technique, which has seen its ups and downs, has been very constant in recent times,” Tezcur stated. “It retains the MHP (Nationalist Motion Social gathering), the junior associate of the ruling coalition, happy, and goals to drive a wedge between the HDP and different Turkish opposition events.

He additionally famous that the HDP has grow to be extra ineffective to the federal government because the Turkish navy and safety forces have established a stronger navy affect over the PKK in recent times, at the very least partly by technological developments similar to the usage of refined and lethal armed drones.

“The federal government believes that it not wants the HDP’s messenger / mediator position given its relentless navy operations which severely restrict the PKK’s room for maneuver,” Tezcur stated.

Whereas he plans extra Turkish incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan concentrating on PKK bases all through this 12 months, he doubts the Turkish navy will open a brand new entrance by launching an unprecedented floor assault on Sinjar.

The Turkish authorities has issued repeated warnings of operations in opposition to the PKK. (AFP)

No less than three components led Tezcur to this conclusion. At the start there’s the presence of Iraqi navy teams and Shiite militias within the Yazidi homeland.

Then there’s “appreciable worldwide concern and sympathy” for the besieged Yazidis, who have been subjected to a vicious marketing campaign of genocide by Daesh in 2014.

Lastly, the remoteness of the border would make the logistical help of a land operation significantly harder for the Turkish military.

Amongst those that see the arrests of HDP members as Erdogan’s method of blaming the failed Gara raid is Mohammed Salih, Kurdish affairs analyst and doctoral scholar on the College’s Annenberg Faculty for Communication. from Pennsylvania.

Erdogan’s actions “reveal the impunity, each nationally and internationally, with which he can behave in an authoritarian method,” Salih advised Arab Information.

“The Turkish chief will definitely proceed his navy incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan, as overseas operations at the moment are a certain method for him to distract from the various issues dealing with his nation.”

As for the Biden administration, Salih stated that it “has already made it clear, with its silence on the mass arrests, and the violations of Kurdish rights in Turkey generally, that the human and democratic rights of the Kurdish folks in Turkey are virtually non-existent. assess.”

Twitter: @pauliddon

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