Expect big discounts this holiday season as retail sales drop flat in September. How to find great deals on TVs, toys and electronics.

By Quentin Fottrell

Online holiday sales are expected to rise just 2.5% to $209.7 billion this year, the slowest rate since 2012.

American consumers are tightening their purse strings this holiday season.

Retail sales stagnated in September, another sign that the economy is likely to slow in the coming months as interest rates rise and consumers cut back on spending. Retail sales represent a significant portion of consumer spending.

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in September, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Revenue rose 0.3% excluding car dealerships. (Automobile sales can skew the overall pattern of retail spending.)

Online holiday sales are expected to rise just 2.5% to $209.7 billion this year, the slowest growth rate since 2012, according to data released Monday by Adobe (ADBE), the software company and market research.

To put this into context: last year, online holiday spending grew by 8.6%. Consumers are unsure about returning to physical stores due to ongoing public health concerns from COVID-19, experts said, and suffering from record inflation.

“The shape of the holiday season will be different this year, with early discounts in October increasing spending that would have occurred around Cyber ​​Week,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing. and information at Adobe.

Despite predictions of single-digit growth online this season, consumers have already spent more than $590 billion online this year between January and August, up 8.9% year-on-year, showing the “resilience online sales, he added.

Americans should spend earlier this year and take advantage of Amazon’s (AMZN) second Prime Day (October 11-12), Brown said. During the first Prime Day event in July, consumers spent $73.7 billion, up 21% year on year.

“As consumers remain willing to spend, many families are feeling increasingly constrained by high prices and rising interest rates,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, told Fox Business.

What’s on sale

Brown said the data suggests record discounts this holiday season — up to 32% or more in some cases — as retailers try to offload inventory in the face of lower consumer spending.

Adobe’s consumer spend analysis covers more than 1 trillion US retail site visits, 100 million storage units and 18 product categories. The report covers the 2022 holiday season, from November 1 to December 31, 2022.

Computer discounts are expected to reach 32% (from 10% in 2021), electronics discounts are expected to reach 27% (from 8% last year), while toy discounts are estimated at 22% ( against 19%). , the report adds.

Televisions will benefit from deep discounts of 19% (compared to 11% in 2021), clothing at 19% (compared to 13%), household appliances at 18% (compared to 4%), sporting goods at 17% (compared to 6 %) and furniture and bedding at 11% (down from 2%), Adobe said.

When Sales Should Hit

The biggest discounts should be realized between Thanksgiving and Cyber ​​Monday.

Thanksgiving Day (November 24) will be the best day to buy electronics. Black Friday (November 25) will have the biggest TV discounts.

The Saturday after Thanksgiving (November 26) will see the biggest discounts on toys, with the biggest deals on clothes and sporting goods on Sunday (November 27) and the best deals on computers and furniture on Cyber ​​​​Monday (November 28).

Based on data from Adobe and social media buzz, the most popular toys this season are expected to be the Got2Glow Fairy Finder, Mini Brands, Squishmallows, LOL Surprise Dolls, Bluey toys, Disney Encanto (DIS) and Cocomelon, a added Adobe.

-Quentin Fottrell


(END) Dow Jones Newswire

10-15-22 1622ET

Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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